Preliminary results and forecasts for the US elections
Apparently, in the United States, Biden will be declared the winner, he has 6 votes left to win, and he is almost guaranteed to receive them in Nevada. Changes in counting leadership are also possible in other wavering states, as Democrats are much more numerous in the mail-order.
The courts and showdowns on this matter will go on for a long time, Trump will not admit defeat. All sorts of surprises are possible here, for example, in the Supreme Court, etc., but, most likely, all the same, Biden. By the way, a revolution on the part of the Trumpists is unlikely, including the reason due to which the army has long hinted gently to Trump that it is loyal only to institutions, but not to him personally. In extreme cases, they will shoot a little and then they will sue a lot.
The US is split in half, and Biden’s legitimacy in the eyes of Republicans will be low. This will be amplified by the fact that, due to Biden’s age and state of health, he will have to transfer a lot of powers to govern the country to someone else. But he has no political experience, it can soften the situation.
Political confrontation will intensify in all dimensions (between the two parties, the center and more radical wings within both parties). Within the Democrats, the struggle between the old moderate politicians and the younger, more radical ones will intensify. Within the Republicans — between the establishment and the Trumpists.
The new administration (if the courts let it work) will seriously change its foreign policy, especially where it does not depend on Congress. Or in line with the general views of the establishment, because here the Republicans from the establishment will breathe a sigh of relief in connection with the end of Trumpism in foreign policy.
Liberal institutionalism in foreign policy (cooperation with international organizations, combating climate change, globalization, advancing the human rights agenda), transatlantic solidarity. Perhaps, the pressure on Beijing will ease somewhat, but it will somewhat intensify on the Kremlin (transatlantic solidarity, sanctions). However, on the other hand, the areas where Trump pressed (such as energy, Nord Stream-2) may weaken, the Democrats are not lobbyists for American shale gas producers in Europe. Although in the long term, a Democratic victory may lead to an accelerated energy transition and lower energy prices (but this is not very short term). In general, there are many nuances here.
The Congress, too, will apparently be divided. The Democrats won the House elections, but they don’t have a majority, and the Senate is likely to be Republican. So foreign and domestic policy will not be under the full control of the Democrats, but they will need to negotiate with the Republican establishment. Therefore, everything will fluctuate between tough internal political clashes and centrist compromises.
The Russians, who followed the US elections just like me, have to go about their day-to-day affairs, although the overseas show will continue for a long time, but after all, it does not concern us at all (well, there, apart from something in the US foreign policy, of course, but there there are so many nuances and uncertainties that it is too early to talk about anything).
Andrey Kazantsev
